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Nearly 2,600 megawatts (MW) of new and refurbished supply is scheduled to come
into service over the next 18 months, resulting in a positive outlook for the
reliability of Ontario's electricity system, said the Independent Electricity
System Operator (IESO) in its latest 18-Month Outlook.
Comprising a mix
of wind, water, nuclear, gas and biomass facilities, most of these projects are
well under construction or in commissioning stages. When complete, they will
supply communities across the province, and displace more carbon-intensive fuel
sources.
"Ontario has more electricity supply options today than ever
before," said Bruce Campbell, VP of Resource Integration at Ontario's IESO.
"Over the next 18 months we should see high levels of reliability."
Two
refurbished nuclear units at the Bruce Power plant are scheduled to return to
service in the first and third quarters of 2011, though some of this supply will
be constrained until the Bruce-to-Milton transmission line is completed, along
with other transmission enhancements.
The early shutdown of four
coal-fired units — two units at Lambton and two units at Nanticoke for a
reduction of 2,000 MW of generating capacity — is planned for late 2010 but
will have no undue impacts on energy adequacy or reliability in
Ontario.
Over the next 18 months, demand for electricity in Ontario will
continue to be impacted by three main factors: the economy, conservation and
embedded generation. To date, the economic recovery has had little effect on
demand, but consumption is expected to show very modest growth in 2010 and 2011
with annual increases of 0.2% and 0.9% respectively, driven mostly by increased
activity in the manufacturing sector. Peak demand, on the other hand, is
expected to decline as a result of targeted conservation programs and the
deployment of smart meters and time-of-use rates for residential and small
business customers.
The IESO regularly assesses the adequacy and
reliability of Ontario's power system. The 18-Month Outlook is issued on a
quarterly basis and is available at www.ieso.ca/18-month.outlook.
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